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This study relies on Chilean longitudinal data to develop an indicator of the risk of marital dissolution, and to associate this indicator with predictors of divorce. Using a retrospective survey from 2015 (Familia como Recurso de la Sociedad, n=1 765) and applying survival analysis techniques, the estimated risk of marital dissolution after 20 years is of 20%. The risk of marital dissolution is associated with the birth of children within the union, the existence of children born to a previous union of the respondent’s partner, the respondent’s birth cohort, and the respondent’s original socioeconomic status.

Hacia la medición del riesgo de disolución del matrimonio en Chile