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The main purpose of this study is to identify the existence of the phenomenon of induced traffic in Mexico. The results obtained indicate that the expansion of roads in Mexico leads to an increase in the number of trips made and kilometers traveled as a result of a reduction in the time taken to move from one place to another. In other words, the demand for trips can be modeled as a function of traditional demand, where a reduction of transport costs, which includes both monetary and time costs, translates into an increase in the number and length of trips. The estimates made indicate that the elasticity of roads to gasoline consumption is 0.15, which confirms the presence of induced traffic. Certain preliminary exercises have also been carried out on possible estimates of induced traffic for specific roads, although it should be recalled that the values estimated for the country as a whole do not necessarily apply to Mexico City. The set of results obtained indicates that the expansion of the road system is associated with a less than proportional increase in traffic, since there is a momentary decrease in the use of the roads that are gradually increased. Thus, in the short term, the expansion of roads leads to an improvement in service that gradually deteriorates over time. This improved service must, however, be evaluated with reference to the long-term costs of a form of urban development that favors the use of the automobile as a means of transport as opposed to other alternatives.

estudios demográficos y urbanos de el colegio de méxico/estudios demográficos y urbanos

Tráfico inducido en México: contribuciones al debate e implicaciones de política pública / Induced Traffic in Mexico: Contributions to the Debate and Public Policy Implications