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We show that local house prices may be driven almos t entirely by the demands of one identifiable group for several years and then b y demands of another group at other times. We present evidence that house prices in Haw aii were subject to such regime shifts. Prices responded to demands associated with U.S. incomes and wealth for most years from 1975 through 2008. For about a decade st arting in the middle of the 1980s, after the Japanese yen appreciated dramatically and J panese housing and stock market wealth soared, however, house prices in Hawaii resp onded to Japanese incomes and wealth. Estimated models with these regime shifts o u performed conventional, constantcoefficient models. The regime-shifting model helps explain why, when, and by how much the volatility and the elasticities of house p rices in Hawaii with respect to the incomes and wealth of the U.S. and Japan varied ove r tim .

Evidence and Implications of Regime Shifts: Time-Varying Effects of the U.S. and Japanese Economies on House Prices in Hawaii