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The establishment of the Green Climate Fund (GCF) has increased expectations and optimism amongst developing countries, especially those that are particularly vulnerable to climate change. The GCF aims to channel a significant portion of global funds for climate change response, with a goal of reaching US$100 billion per year by 2020. Portrayed as a timely saviour to the climate finance needs of vulnerable countries, the allocation of GCF funds among countries will be key to low carbon and resilient futures. Its broad allocation policy increases the possibility that particularly vulnerable countries which have struggled to access international climate finance will continue to face such challenges. Adopting an equitable/fair principle of allocation, this article highlights a number of scenarios on the possible impact of the post-2020 climate financing environment on particularly vulnerable countries with a special focus on the Pacific Small Island Developing States (PSIDS). This study argues that PSIDS are extremely sensitive to GCF allocation mechanisms. While the study supports the notion of balanced allocation as currently advanced by the GCF, the precarious situation of PSIDS necessitates a re-think of how the GCF finance is to be allocated in the future.

Gazing over the horizon: Will an equitable Green Climate Fund allocation policy be significant for the Pacific post-2020?