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Com o objetivo de subsidiar o Programa Nacional do Livro Didatico (PNLD), gerenciado pelo Fundo Nacional de Desenvolvimento da Educacao (FNDE), apresenta uma analise do comportamento historico da matricula no ensino fundamental regular e calcula estimativas para os anos de 2000 e 2001, na rede publica, por serie, para cada uma das 27 unidades da Federacao. Foi adotada a metodologia de fluxo escolar, considerando o modelo proposto pela Organizacao das Nacoes Unidas para a Educacao, Ciencia e Cultura (Unesco), com as adaptacoes pertinentes ao caso brasileiro e a incorporacao de formas de correcao e ajustes dos dados sugeridos pelo professor Ruben Klein.Palavras-chave: ensino fundamental; matricula; Programa Nacional do Livro Didatico.AbstractWith the objective to subsidize the National Program of the Didactic Book (PNLD) managed by the National Fund for the Development of the Education (FNDE), this paper presents an analysis of the historical behaviour towards student enrollment in the regular basic education and it also calculates estimatives for the years 2000 and 2001, in public schools, by levels, for each one of 27 unities of the Federation. The methodology of the schoolar flow was adopted, considering the model proposed by the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (Unesco) with the adaptations pertinent to the Brazilian case and the incorporation of correction forms and data adjustments suggested by professor (doctor) Ruben Klein.Keywords: elementary school, enrolment, National Program of the Didactic Book (PNLD).

A matrícula no ensino fundamental em perspectiva: Brasil e unidades da Federação – 2000-2001