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By using the multi-points observation data of insolation, this study evaluated the short-cycle fluctuation of total power output fluctuation of high-penetration photovoltaic power generation system (PVS). First, this study evaluated the practical usability of so-called 1/√N rule. The results suggest that the observation points should be placed with at least 20 30 km interval so that the average insolation fluctuation around the point is calculated by applying 1/√N rule. Then, taking the smoothingeffect around the observation point into account, this study estimated the total power output fluctuation of high penetration PVS. The horizontal global insolation data observed for a year at 61 points in the Japan central area was utilized. As the result, the total power output fluctuation including only shorter cycles than 32 min is smaller than 1 % of the installed capacity for most of the period in a year. Although the absolute value of short-cycle fluctuation itself may not be significant even if 8 GW of PVS is installed, the reduction in the contribution of controllable utility power plant due to the HP-PVS may cause the difficulty of LFC.

Evaluation of Short-cycle Power Output Fluctuation of High-Penetration Photovoltaic Power Generation Systems using Multi-Points Insolation Data