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In order to respond to increasing global food demand and provide for national economic growth, the Estonian Dairy Strategy for 2012−2020 aims to achieve a 30% growth in milk production. At the same time, there is a global attempt to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This paper analyses the medium-term (2015−2020) projections for milk production and associated GHG emissions from dairy cows in Estonia. The FAPRI-GOLD type market model of Estonian agriculture, which is used for projections of agricultural production, was supplemented with a module that helps project GHG emissions. The paper demonstrates the endogenisation of GHG emission factors in a relatively general agricultural market model context. The results imply that increasing milk production by 30% by 2020 would jeopardise Estonia’s commitments with regard to agricultural GHG emissions. However, the average GHG emission per tonne of produced milk will decline, thus reducing the “carbon footprint” of milk production.

Medium-run projections for greenhouse gas emissions arising from agriculture: the case of milk production in Estonia