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In the steelmaking and continuous casting (SMCC) production process, the operation time delay often occurs which may lead to planned casting break or processing conflict so that the initial scheduling plan becomes unrealizable. Existing rescheduling methods with disturbances firstly classify the disturbances according to the disturbance type and disturbance quantity only by artificial experience or rules, and then directly adjust initial scheduling plan with corresponding rescheduling method. Those methods don't analyze the influence degree of disturbances to the initial scheduling plan in detail, so the adjustment degree of initial scheduling plan is always too greater, which leads to the poor continuity and stability of initial scheduling plan. In this paper, the relation among operation time delay, planned casting break and processing conflict is deeply analyzed. Then a novel prediction method for abnormal condition of scheduling plan with operation time delay disturbance in SMCC production process is proposed including disturbance identification of operating time delay based on event-driven mechanism, analysis on charges based on reachability matrix, analysis on influence degree of disturbance and abnormal condition decision of initial scheduling plan. As a result, the real-time application shows that the proposed prediction method can timely and accurately predict the abnormal condition of the scheduling plan with operation time delay disturbance in SMCC production process, which can only adjust the affected charges that must to be rescheduled in the initial scheduling plan and reduce the frequency of complete rescheduling. The initial scheduling plan can also maintain the good continuity and stability. © 2013 ISIJ.

A Prediction Method for Abnormal Condition of Scheduling Plan with Operation Time Delay in Steelmaking and Continuous Casting Production Process