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A stochastic model of aging and death was made to investigate the effect of environmental factors on the human mortality with the progress of againg.The death was assumed to be equivalent to the full occupancy of individual's“capacit”with deteriorating factors, where the“capacity”was defined by the total amount of vital function of an individual, while the deterioration factor was defined by a sum of environmental and internal noxious events including diseases. It was further assumed that the“capacity”increases linearly before the maturity phase, where a plateau is formed, and linearly declines thereafter to a given maximum age. Calculations were made with a Monte-Carlo method for generating the deterioration factor uniformly random at every age. It was shown that the simulated mortality curves of various countries at present and in the past were in good agreement with statistical observation curves. And the calculated amount of deterioration factors was shown to be a good index of environment in terms of assessing the health maintenance policies.

A STOCHASTIC MODEL OF AGING AND DEATH IN THE MODERN ENVIRONMENT