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My paper offers some thoughts in crystal-ball gazing about the future of seabed mining from an economic, political, and legal point of view. The present economic environment does not augur well for deep seabed mining. World demand for the metals is low and prices are depressed. Many landbased mines have shut down. Evaluations of the economics of the industry based on the succession of models from the 1976 Massachusetts Institute of Technology model to the 1982 Texas University model have progressed from guarded optimism to unrestrained pessimism. Yet prosperity, in conjunction with improved metal prices in an era of stability and confidence, could rapidly change the economic future of ocean mining. So could other factors such as lower-cost equipment, higher content of metal in nodules discovered, increased mining and processing efficiency, and a corresponding reduction of capital and operating costs. Seabed mining could therefore eventually become a more attractive investment. However, as long as land-based supplies of nickel, copper, cobalt, and manganese remain plentiful, it is unlikely that seabed extraction of those metals could be carried out as cheaply or as efficiently. But the date of commencement of seabed mining will depend as much on the desires of certain countries to have what they regard as potentially more assured access to strategic metals and on pressure from developing countries to set in motion the Enterprise, a company established by the Law of the Sea Convention' to conduct ocean mining activities. Now let us look to the political and legal environment within which seabed mining might develop. I am confident that when deep seabed mining begins it will take place under the regime established by the LOS Convention. One purpose of the Convention is to establish a regime for deep seabed resources that can grant exploitation rights which will be recognized by most, if not all, of the world. When the LOS Convention comes into force, it will establish an International

The Future of the Exploitation of the Resources of the Deep Seabed and Subsoil