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Criminal justice policy, whether formulated by a police chief, state legislature, or the United States Supreme Court, is heavily influenced by policymakers' opinions concerning the degree to which crime is responsive to criminal sanctions. Until recently these opinions were uninformed by scientific research findings on the relationship between sanctions and crime rates, simply because little systematic empirical research had been performed. During the last three decades, however, this situation has changed rather dramatically; there have been literally hundreds of empirical studies on the effects of criminal corrections programs on recidivism rates; more recently, there have been scores of empirical studies dealing with the deterrence and incapacitation effects of punishment. The evaluation literature on correctional programs has begun to play a major role in the evolution of correctional policy, and the recent research on deterrence is receiving considerable attention;' indeed, several sophisticated empirical studies of the deterrent effect of capital punishment were submitted in briefs to the United States Supreme Court during its recent hearings on this issue. My purpose in this review is to explain what questions have been addressed in the recent research on the preventive effects of criminal sanctions, indicate what techniques are being used to answer them, and give my interpretation of what we have learned and can hope to learn through these techniques. Beyond just summarizing current results, then, I hope to comnunicate a sense of how much confidence should be placed in these results. The first section presents a brief overview of the literature on the influence of

Punishment and Crime: A Critique of Current Findings concerning the Preventive Effects of Punishment