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Most CESEE countries had an impressive credit growth prior to the outbreak of   the financial crisis in 2008. Nevertheless, that experience has taught us   that the strong expansion of private sector credit must not be ignored. In an   attempt to investigate whether the rapid credit growth was a result of the   catching-up process or was a risky process with well-known consequences, we   performed empirical analysis by applying statistical (HP filter) and   econometric (pooled OLS, fixed effect OLS, and PMG) approaches. The empirical   results of both out-of-sample and in-sample approaches suggest that in the   pre-crisis period excessive credit growth in terms of higher actual than   estimated credit growth was recorded for the majority of the countries   observed. Compared to the out of-sample approach, in-sample estimates, which   turned out to be more reliable, indicate that the pre-crisis growth was less   pronounced and that over the post-crisis period actual credit growth   fluctuated around the estimated growth, pointing to the fact that the former   was in line with movements in its fitted values

Excessive credit growth or the catching up process: The case of central, eastern, and southeastern European countries