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This paper studies the impact of fiscal policy and external shocks on the   sustainability of Serbia’s external position. The key determinants of   Serbia's current account balance are identified using model averaging   techniques and are compared with estimates obtained for other small open   economies (Poland, Georgia, Morocco, Ukraine, and Estonia). The paper uses   estimated influences of macrovariables on the current account balance to   generate a rich set of possible outcomes for the external position of the   country. The results suggest the importance of fiscal policy for the   reduction of external imbalances in all countries in our sample. In   particular, credible and sustained fiscal adjustment can reduce current   account deficit and stabilize Serbia’s external position close to its current   level over the medium term. The analysis also warns that lack of success in   fiscal consolidation coupled with external shocks may easily push the   external position onto an unsustainable path

The sustainability of Serbia's external position: The impact of fiscal adjustment and external shocks