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The objective of this research is the analysis of the relationship between air temperature and vehicles CO2 emissions in ABC Paulista urban area, located in the southeast of Sao Paulo Metropolitan Region. Beside, the temperature projections from two IPCC climatic models were analyzed. The air temperature data in the hourly and monthly time scale were used to identify the intensity of the heat islands. Estimation of vehicular emissions was performed using the EMME traffic simulation model. The results showed that the areas with the highest temperatures are in the northern sector of ABC Paulista, indicating a heat island of medium intensity (3.6 degrees C). This sector also stood out as the one with the highest CO2 road emission (ton/km) because it presents the most extensive and busiest traffic routes. The climate model projections, despite the uncertainties, indicated a scenario of warmer days and nights, with a rise of 6.3 degrees C in the maximum annual temperature for the period 2071-2100. The analysis of the geographic distribution of areas with high temperature and high CO2 emissions indicate a contribution of urban traffic emissions to the elevation in air temperature in ABC Paulista, which tends to increase based on IPCC model projection.

Temperatura do ar e emissões urbanas em região industrial de São Paulo, Brasil