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Stratospheric aerosols originating from volcanic sulfur emissions are a critical part of the natural forcing driving interannual-to-multidecadal climate evolution. In its 2013 assessment report, the Intergovernmental Panel on climate change (IPcc) affirms strong advances had been made in understanding volcanic aerosols and constraining associated forcing estimates compared with previous assessments (Myhre et al. 2013). challenging the high confidence in volcanic forcing estimates reported by the IPcc (see Table 8.5 in Myhre et al. 2013), climate model results show some gaps in our understanding of the climate’s response to volcanic eruptions. For example the largest uncertainties in the estimates of radiative forcing from historical simulations performed using state-of-the-art climate models occur during periods of strong volcanic activity (Santer et al. 2014); climate models generally do not produce robust dynamical responses to volcanic eruptions (e.g. Driscoll et al. 2012; Ding et al. 2014) and tend to overestimate the observed post-eruption global surface cooling (Marotzke and Forster 2015); and simulated temperatures around major volcanic events of the last millennium often disagree with corresponding reconstructed changes (e.g. Mann et al. 2012; Anchukaitis et al. 2012).

A coordinated modeling assessment of the climate response to volcanic forcing