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Introduction To assess the link between climate variability and hydrological regime, we focused our study on the mid-Holocene (6 ka years BP) and the last cold period of the Late Quaternary (21 ka BP). We discuss how well current general circulation models (GCMs) can reproduce river runoff changes and, consequently, variations in closed lake level under contrasting climate conditions. The Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) (Joussaume and Taylor, 1995) has run simulations that are used in this study. The rivers of the East European Plane (EEP) were selected for analysis. Feed of rivers is determined by the balance of precipitation and evaporation in the catchment, hence river runoff change responds immediately to climate changes. It is important that both precipitation and evaporation are calculated by a GCM. Moreover, on large planes, such as the EEP, GCM data much better refl ect the state of climate compared to areas with complex mosaic surface conditions. Additionally, large amounts of paleoclimate data exist on the EEP for selected periods of the past.

Paleo sea-level changes in the Black Caspian Seas: Links to river runoff and global climate change