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Total probabilistic theorem was applied to analyze seismic risk by mean Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA). Earthquake as natural earthquakes as a random natural event was approached by the concept of uncertainty. The PSHA method is described in 5 (five) stages of work, called identificating the source of the earthquake, characterizing the earthquake source, characterizing the seismicity, determinating the movement of soil surface occurring at a location due to the earthquake, the combining the uncertainty of the location of the earthquake, magnitude of the earthquake and prediction of soil surface movement parameters. Ez-Frisk computer Program was used to perform earthquake risk calculation. Earthquake risk analysis for the city of Bontang, East Kalimantan taken as a case study. Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) in Bontang base rocks for some periodic of time presented in chart form as result of earthquake risk analysis.

Penerapan Teorema Probabilitas Total dalam Analisis Resiko Gempa