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The fifteen years until 2005—the post-bubble period—was a challenging one for the Japanese economy. It is almost as if history had played a trick on Japan. At the end of the 1980s, Japan had been riding on the crest of a bubble economy. The stock market and land prices had soared, real GDP had averaged close to 5 per cent year-on-year for the previous five years (and nominal growth more than 6 per cent), and the coming ‘Pacific century’ appeared to be Japan’s for the taking. By 2005, the stock market was less than 40 per cent of its end 1989 peak and official land prices were still falling, trailing five-year average real GDP growth was less than 2 per cent (and nominal growth slightly negative), and Japan had ceded the economic limelight—if not future economic leadership in Asia—to China. How did this happen? I believe that Japan’s prolonged deflation in the post-bubble period was largely a ‘policy story’ and that the answer to that question lies in understanding the policy challenges and how, in my view, they were largely mishandled. Understanding this is also the key to formulating an informed view of what may lie ahead for the Japanese economy. Will the economy remain in a prolonged quasi-deflationary state or will it fully normalise and resume vigorous non-deflationary growth? 1 THE JAPANESE ECONOMY: WHERE IS IT LEADING IN THE ASIA PACIFIC?

The Japanese economy: where is it leading in the Asia Pacific?