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"X X Thenever major tax reform packages are proposed, one of the areas of % /% / fiercest debate is always about the distributional impact of the reforms ▼ ▼ — who wins, who loses, and by how much. When major shifts in the tax mix are suggested — away from income tax and towards consumption taxes — the distributional issues always assume particular prominence because of concern about the impact of such changes on the most vulnerable groups in the community. It is arguable that the previous two attempts at tax mix shifts in the mid 1980s and early 1990s failed in large part because of concerns about their distributional impact (Treasury, 1985; Liberal and National Parties, 1991). So when the Howard Government laid out a comprehensive 200 page tax reform plan in August 1998 and then held an election on this issue, there was intense public interest in whether or not the new tax system would be fairer (Treasurer, 1998). Estimates of the distributional impact of the package were prepared by the Treasury and included in the document released by the Treasurer. But aspects of the methodology underlying these estimates differed from that used in previous attempts in this area. Ultimately, the Australian Senate set up the Committee on a New Tax System to evaluate the Government’s tax reform package. That Committee asked us to examine the distributional impact of the reforms, in some cases using assumptions that were different from those made by the Treasury (Warren et al, 1999a). Subsequently, in May 1999, the Commonwealth Government negotiated a compromise agreement with the Australian Democrats and the new tax package is now being introduced on 1 July 2000. This compromise resulted in food being removed from the GST base, compensation to pensioners being increased and better protected, changes to the taxation of petroleum products, reductions in tax cuts for high income individuals, and the deferred abolition of a number of State taxes.

The Distributional Impact of Year 2000 Tax Reforms in Australia