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EW ZEALAND lias climbed a tax mountain for most o f the 20th century. In 1921 the total tax take exceeded 15 per cent of GDP; in 1941 it ex­ ceeded 20 per cent; in 1943 25 per cent; and in 1980 30 per cent. In 1990 it reached a historic peak of 36 per cent, falling back to 34 per cent in 1997. This tax mountain is die creation of rising government expenditure. In 197374, government expenditure accounted for 28 per cent of GDP. After 1975, it gen­ erally remained over 38 per cent and peaked in 1986-87 at 44.2 per cent. Much of tliis increase reflected die rising cost of social transfers, which jumped from 12 per cent of total government expenditures in die early 1970s to a peak of around 22 per cent in 1989. During 1950-75, interest on die public debt averaged 2.4 per cent of GDP a year. It rose to 3.2 per cent in 1975-79, 5 per cent in 1980-84, and 7.2 per cent in 1985-89. It peaked at 8 per cent of GDP (and 20.7 per cent of government expen­ diture) in 1987-88. This level was comparable to die early years of World War II (1940-42), when interest payments consumed 22.4 per cent of total expenditures. The gross public debt itself was 40.5 per cent of GDP in 1973-74; widiin five years, it reached 53 per cent of GDP. At its peak in 1986-87, die gross public debt reached 77.2 per cent of GDP. Even in die late 1980s, after die reforms of Roger Douglas, die Minister of Fi­ nance, government expenditure did not fall below 38 per cent of GDP, ten percent­ age points above die 1973-74 level. The rado remained at 38 per cent for die first two years of die Bolger Nadonal government (1991-92), reflecdng die need to cushion diose most affected by die structural adjustment of die economy and high debt service payments (Caragata, 1997:55-70). This huge increase in die role of government, from 28 per cent to 44 per cent of GDP in die 13 years from 1973-74 to 1986-87, was not planned; nor was it sub­ jected to any cost-benefit analysis or risk assessment of its potendal impact on die

From Welfare State to Optimal Size of Government: A Paradigm Shift for Public Policy