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A FTER almost a decade of steady progress with unilateral liberalisation of trade barriers, uncertainty has reappeared during the past twelve months or JL -m^o about the future of Australia’s trade policy. Some decisions by the Liberal-National Coalition government elected in March 1996 have contributed to this uncertainty, which the opposition Labor Party has used as an opportunity for demanding continued protection for some Australian jobs, notwithstanding its own previous commitment to trade liberalisation and mi­ croeconomic reform. The conclusion in July 1996 of the general tariff reduction program begun in March 1991 has been followed by reviews of protection for pas­ senger motor vehicles and components (PMV) and textiles, clothing and footwear (TCF); these are required to establish further liberalisation beyond 2000, when PMV tariffs are scheduled to fall to 15 per cent and TCF tariffs to 15-25 per cent. The reopening of the protection debate, along with vacillating comments by some ministers, has encouraged some industrialists to expect a sympathetic reception for proposals for industry support schemes. The optimism that followed the successful conclusion of the Uruguay Round of the GATT and the establishment of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) has also receded following the W TO Ministerial Meeting in Singapore in December 1996. The information technology agreement, followed shortly afterwards by an agreement on telecommunications under the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS), represent significant progress outside the normal negotiating round. The Singapore meeting gave some support for a new round of trade nego­ tiations to begin in 2000, but gave time for reflection before real preparations begin. The APEC Summit in November 1996 reiterated the Bogor Declaration of 1994 and approved individual action programs, but it did not take any new initiatives. Given that the arguments for continuing trade liberalisation remain valid, why has the political mood changed so suddenly? Can policy stability be restored?

Reciprocity and Protectionism in Australia’s Trade Policy