English (United Kingdom)

https://curated-unify.zendy.io/wp-json/zendy-region/v1/featured_content/oa?rat=en

https://curated-unify.zendy.io/wp-json/zendy-region/v1/highlighted_journal/

Global: Zendy Plus annual

Presents the access of premium content as premium feature

Premium Content

Presents the keyphrase highlighting as premium feature

Keyphrase Highlighting

Presents the summarisation as premium feature

Summarisation

Insights

Presents the pdf analysis as premium feature

PDF Analysis

Presents the zaia usage as premium feature

ZAIA

Global: Zendy Tools annual

Global: Zendy Free Plan

Global: Zendy Tools monthly

Global: Zendy Plus monthly

This paper analyzes the existence of a common business cycle within Central American Economic Integration, while performing a characterization of the same. In this sense, given that the common business cycle is an unobservable variable it is necessary to use a dynamic factor model (Stock y Watson, 1991; Diebold y Rudebusch, 1996) that allows us to study whether the economic growth of every country in in Central America has a common pattern. The paper also examines a way to characterize the common cycle through its phases (regimes or unobservable variables) is shown using a Markov regime change model with the objective of giving a scientific classification to the evolution of economic growth and, therefore, avoiding descriptions with subjective criteria commonly made by analysts of the economic or social field. From this study we conclude that there is a common business cycle in Central America, giving evidence that a portion of long-term growth of each country is explained by the entire Central growth; and another portion is determined by strictly domestic and independent country-specific factors. In addition, there is a description of the phases of the common business cycle characterized in three changes of regimes, which verifies the existence of three generalized recessions in the region. Finally, it is shown that the common business cycle in Central America is procyclical relative to U.S. output.

ciencia económica

Evidence of a common business cycle in Central American Economic Integration: Estimation and characterization using a Markov-switching dynamic factor model