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To ensure the safety of train operations, it is important to estimate the outflow from the bottom of snowpack which might incur a full-depth avalanche. Therefore, the authors examined a simplified method for estimating the outflow from the bottom of snowpack, which can be applied to railway disaster prevention, on the basis of heat balance observations, snowmelt observations and previous studies. Consequently, the simplified method, which combines a snowmelt (heat balance) model and a percolation model, yields a good estimate of the outflow from the bottom of snowpack at 1 hour intervals using four input data available from the nearest AMeDAS: i.e., air temperature, precipitation, wind speed and duration of sunshine.

A Simplified Method for Estimating Outflow from the Bottom of Snowpack