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Background. According  to a wide  range of authors, eye damage caused by diabetes mellitus accounts for 80–90 % of the total number of disorders. The development of mathematical predictive models allows for a more versatile analysis of experimental and clinical data. The purpose of the study was to develop a model for predicting the severity of diabetic retinopathy based on a review of markers of endothelial dysfunction and hypoxia. Materials and methods. We used a streptozotocin model of type 2 diabetes mellitus. Determined von Willebrand factor,  endothelin-1,  2,3-diphosphoglycerate  are  used  as  variables.  Also,  the  transition  of  the  non-proliferative phase of diabetic  retinopathy  into  the proliferative on  the 180th day of  the experiment was confirmed histologically. Results. We have developed a mathematical model for predicting the studied pathological state based on biochemical blood tests at the early stages of the experiment. We have proven the informative value of endothelial dysfunction markers, von Willebrand factor and endothelin-1, for predicting the transition of non-proliferative diabetic retinopathy into the proliferative phase. We determined the significance of a comprehensive analysis of the level of 2,3-diphosphoglycerate in erythrocytes together with the above markers of the functional status of the endothelium on day 30 for predicting the further course of the disease. Conclusions. We determined the effectiveness of a comprehensive analysis of the level of 2,3-diphosphoglycerate in erythrocytes together with the above markers of the functional status of the endothelium on day 30 for predicting the further course of the pathological process under study.

Prediction model for severity of diabetic retinopathy derived from review of endothelial dysfunction and hypoxia markers