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This study preliminarily examines potential use of the dynamical seasonal prediction with an atmosphere-ocean coupled model for the drought management in the upstream of the Tone River basin. first, likage between water storage in reservoirs for August and six accumulated-value predictors as precursor is revealed based on the observation data with non-parametric correlation test. In addition, correlation beween drought and El Nioo and Southern Oscillation phenomena years is examined to be not significant. The ensemble mean of the dynamical seasonal prediction outputs satisfactorily captures the drought years. This result suggests that the dynamical seasonal prediction may provide significant information about improvement in the cost-effectiveness of the weather modification operations to practitioners

PRELIMINARY STUDY OF THE USE OF THE DINAMICAL SEASONAL PREDICTIONS IN THE UPSTREAM OF THE TONE RIVER BASIN FOR DROUGHT MANAGEMENT