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This research interprets simulated changes in characteristic of precipitation over Japan derived from an integrated hydrologic-atmospheric model for analysis of water uses on a river basin scale. First accuracy and reliability of simulated changes are evaluated in comparison with ground data, and changes averaged over each climatic region are evaluated in terms of mean and standard deviation that will be used to generate two sets of hydrologic data series under present and CO2 doubling scenarios for sensitivity analysis of a water system to climate change. It was found that simulated precipitation represented the actual regional precipitation distribution with better accuracy but was generally underestimated, that the MRI-GCM global warming scenario would induce monthly decrease in precipitation in almost all climatic regions, and that regions with smaller precipitation tend to have larger degree of precipitation fluctuation.

INTERPRETATION OF PREDICTED GLOBAL WARMING IMPACTS FOR LINKING WITH IMPACT ASSESSMENT ON RIVER BASIN SCALE WATER USES