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Stochastic typhoon simulation, that is the combination of the Monte Carlo simulation on typhoon parameters, the storm surge simulation with the parameters, and the extreme-value analysis on the storm surges, is one of useful tools in the probabilistic discussion on the current design storm water level for coastal defense. This paper compares the extreme storm surges on the Pacific coast from Kyushu to Kanto District, Japan, with two empirical parametric typhoon wind field models, two sea surface drag coefficients for high wind speed, and two assumptions of future typhoon change. The result shows that the extreme storm surge is very sensitive to the sea surface drag coefficient for high wind speed and that one of the assumptions gives larger extreme storm surges in some of the coast and smaller in others.

Variation of Extreme Storm Surges with Wind Field Model and Future Typhoon Change in Stochastic Typhoon Simulation