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Ensemble hydrological prediction is considered useful for reservoir operation for water supply, which need to take long-term hydrological prediction into account in general. However, they have not yet been widely considered in the actual reservoir management, because it is still unclear how to effectively utilize ensemble hydrological predictions considering their uncertainty. In this study, a method to artificially generate ensemble inflow predictions with designed error structures is developed. Monte Carlo simulation of long-term reservoir operation is then conducted by use of the ensemble hydrological predictions generated by the proposed method in order to clarify the effectiveness of reservoir operation for water supply considering ensemble hydrological prediction with various error structures.

A METHOD TO ANALYZE THE EFFECTIVENESS OF LONG-TERM RESERVOIR OPERATION CONSIDERING ENSEMBLE HYDROLOGICAL PREDICTION