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We have developed a method to combine extrapolating model and meso-scale meteorological model to improve the accuracy of nowcasting model until a few hours ahead. In the developed model, outputs obtained by extrapolating model and meso-scale meteorological model are combined with the optimum combination factor. The optimum combination factor in prediction lead time is estimated from error variance and bias error of latest outputs from each model. We applied the method to a precipitation event in Kinki region. The results showed higher accuracy than those of each model.

DEVELOPMENT OF A METHOD TO COMBINE EXTRAPOLATING MODEL AND MESO-SCALE METEOROLOGICAL MODEL BY ESTIMATING ERROR VARIANCE AND BIAS ERROR IN REAL TIME