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In order to enhance the emergency preparedness for large-scale floods of the Tone River, we categorized the inundation patterns and calculated fatality estimates. Drainage pump capabilities, in terms of operatable inundation depth and operatable duration limited by fuel supply logistics, were modeled from pump station data of each site along the rivers. Fatality reduction effects due to the enhancement of the drainage capabilities were calculated. We found proper operations of the drainage facilities can decrease the number of estimated fatalities considerably in some cases. We also estimated the difference of risk between floods with 200 years return period and those with 1000 years return period. In some of the 1000 years return period cases, we found the estimated fatalities jumped up whereas the populations in inundated areas changed only a little.

ESTIMATES OF THE NUMBER OF FATALITIES IN CASE OF LARGE-SCALE FLOODS WITH EFFECTIVENESS ANALYSIS OF THE MITIGATORY OPERATIONS