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Manabe(1968) suggested an occurrence of typhoon-generated abnormally strong wind speeds reaching 93.5 m/s at Yakushima from the analysis of resin freckles left along annual rings on a stump of the 'Yakusugi'(Yakushima Cedar) with a tree age of more than 1,500 years. This paper gives a re-estimate of 70 m/s wind speed at a height of 10 m through reanalysis of the relationship between annual width of freckles in the recent years on the stump and annual maximum wind speed measured at Yakushima. An extreme value analysis for a sample of annual maximum wind speed consisting of measurements in recent years and data converted from around 1,500 year-long freckle records using the above-mentioned relationship indicates that the return period of wind speed may be around 2,000 years. An analytical consideration and Monte-Carlo simulation on typhoon-generated extreme wind speed imply that the abnormally strong wind speed event may occur in a time scale of around 5,000 years.

doboku gakkai rombunshuu. b1, suikougaku

INVESTIGATING OCCURRENCE POSSIBILITY OF ABNORMALLY STRONG WIND SPEED ESTIMATED USING WIDTH RECORDS OF RESIN FRECKLE LEFT ALONG ANNUAL RINGS OF 'YAKUSUGI