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Improving the accuracy of peak runoff height estimation for flood risk reduction purpose is one of the research targets in hydrology. Peak runoff height is generally simulated by hydrological models deterministically. A recent study suggested that the rainfall-runoff system can be expressed as a stochastic differential equation by adopting the Fokker-Planck equation in association with rainfall pattern. The objective of this study is to estimate the uncertainty of peak runoff height by considering uncertainty of effective rainfall through the water holding capacity in addition to the uncertainty of rainfall pattern. Results show that the uncertainty of peak runoff height increase with the increment of uncertainty associated with rainfall pattern, whereas uncertainty of water holding capacity needs to be considered in the quantification of the uncertainty of peak runoff height.

UNCERTAINTY OF PEAK RUNOFF HEIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH UNCERTAINTY OF WATER HOLDING CAPACITY AND RAINFALL PATTERN