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In this study, the behavioral intention method was applied for future travel demand forecasting of a newly opened railroad Minato Mirai Line in 2004. The behavioral intention method is a new method for measuring behavior after policy implementation developed by Fujii & Garling. The forecasting demand was compared with the actual demand after the opening of the railroad. As the result, it was shown that the behavioral intention method was effective as a simple and easy demand forecasting technique for new railroads, especially in case future forecasts were short-term and the new railroads' influence area seemed to be smaller. Some new knowledge about the behavioral-intention consistency was also shown, comparing with the actual consistency using panel data from a survey implemented before and after the opening of the railroad.

A Case Study of New Railroad Demand Forecasting using Behavioral Intention Method