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This paper investigates the source of historical fluctuations in annual UK labor productivity and employment data extending back to the 19th century. Long-run identifying restrictions are used to decompose shocks into technology shocks and other shocks. The UK results show more sample stability than similar historical results found for the U.S. in a companion paper. The short-run impact of technology shocks on labor is found to be negative both before and after WWII, regardless of the data generating process assumed for labor. This suggests that the technology-driven real business cycle hypothesis is strongly rejected for the UK. The decomposition also reveals important changes in the volatility of shocks over time.

The Source of UK Historical Economic Fluctuations: An Analysis Using Long-Run Restrictions