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The objective of this paper is to re-evaluate the effect of the 1985 “Employment Services for Ex-Offenders” (ESEO) program on recidivism in San Diego, Chicago and Boston. The initial group of program participants was split randomly in a control group and a treatment group. The actual treatment (mainly being job related counseling) only takes place conditional on finding a job and not having been arrested for those selected in the treatment group. We use interval-censored proportional hazard models for job search and recidivism time, where the latter model incorporates the conditional treatment effect, depending on covariates. We find that the effect of the program depends on location and age. The ESEO program reduces the risk of recidivism only for ex-inmates over the age of 27 in San Diego and Chicago and over the age of 36 in Boston, but increases the risk of recidivism for the other ex-inmates in the treatment group.

Job Search, Conditional Treatment and Recidivism: The Employment Services for Ex-Offenders Program Reconsidered