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Polls are used by politicians, voters, and businesspeople alike to form expectations over political outcomes.  In an electoral system with pork' at the national level, local economic prospects will be a direct function of political support.  Because every poll comes with its margin of error, we can exploit the error in sub-national polls to test for whether forward-looking investment in the economy adjusts to shocks in local political behavior.  The covariance between the strength of this adjustment and local-level characteristics allows us to identify the locations in which strong pork' contracts exist.  To illustrate the technique, we provide a theoretical foundation and an empirical exercise using data on Ugandan micro-entrepreneurs during the 2001 presidential election.  We find evidence that investor behavior responds in a small but significant way to surprises in electoral support, and this responsiveness is strongest in core' electoral districts.

Using the Error in Pre-Election Polls to Test for the Presence of Pork