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The capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and the discounted cash flow (DCF) method have been used to establish a 95% confidence interval for the value of the Transurban Group, owners and operators of toll roads in Australia and the United States. As the value claimed in the financial statements is well in excess of the upper limit, it is concluded that Transurban is overvalued. This conclusion is supported by other evidence. Overvaluation has increased the risk of insolvency through excessive borrowing. For example, in 2008 cash at bank was only about 5% of the total liabilities.

The Valuation of Toll Roads and the Implication for Future Solvency with Special Reference to the Transurban Group