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Current estimates of obesity costs ignore the impact of future weight loss and gain, and may either over or underestimate economic consequences of weight loss. In light of this, I construct static and dynamic measures of medical costs associated with body mass index (BMI), to be balanced against the cost of one-time interventions. This study finds that ignoring the implications of weight loss and gain over time overstates the medical-cost savings of such interventions by an order of magnitude. When the relationship between spending and age is allowed to vary, weight-loss attempts appear to be cost-effective starting and ending with middle age. Some interventions recently proven to decrease weight may also be cost-effective.

Pound Wise and Penny Foolish? Weight Loss and The Dynamics of Health Care Spending