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The article explores the use of analogical reasoning to understand homeland defense and security issues. Analogical reasoning relies on the analysis of historical precedents. While much value can be inferred from examining historical precedents, accelerated change in contemporary societies decrease its relevance for understanding future events. This article considers whether complexity theory can complement the analogical approach. We formulate a theory of global violence and instability based on analogical reasoning and complexity theory to explicate why violent events persist despite countermeasures taken to contain them. This theory elucidates the phenomenon of escalating violence and explains why movements that perpetrate violence do not quickly mellow. We conclude with testable propositions and suggestions about the practical relevance of the theoretical framework for containing contemporary violence.

Analogical Reasoning and Complexity