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Arab political regimes are both unusually undemocratic and unusually stable. A series of statistical models are nested to parse competing explanations. The democratic deficit is comprehensible in terms of modernization, democracy waves, and the Arab population share, with the last determinant subject to multiple interpretations. Hypotheses that did not receive robust support include the presence of oil rents, conflict with Israel or other neighbors, and the influence of Islam.

Explaining Middle Eastern Political Authoritarianism I: The Level of Democracy