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Resumen El objetivo general es estimar escenarios para el volumen de operaciones que puedan presentarse en Sectores Vulnerables, susceptibles de recibir operaciones financieras ilicitas. El metodo empleado son las matrices estocasticas tambien denominadas de transicion, en virtud de haber demostrado eficacia en la prevencion de riesgo financiero, los resultados permitieron conocer el volumen de operaciones que podrian ser reportadas para un periodo de hasta 36 meses posterior a la informacion historica a septiembre del 2014. Como parte de los analisis estocasticos, los resultados aportan elementos para que la inteligencia financiera pueda analizar con mayor profundidad a ciertos sectores hasta confirmar o no la procedencia ilicita. El metodo no habia sido empleado hasta ahora para la estimacion de operaciones con recursos de procedencia ilicita. Abstract The general objective of this work is to estimate the scenarios for the volume of operations that could emerge in Vulnerable Sectors, susceptible to illicit financial operations. The methods used are the stochastic matrices, also known as transition matrices, as they have demonstrated to be efficient in the prevention of financial risk. The results allowed for the understanding of the volume of operations that could be reported for a period of up to 36 months after the historical data until September 2014. As part of the stochastic analyses, the results provide elements for the financial intelligence to further analyze certain sectors until confirming illicit precedence. The method had not been used for the estimation of operations with illegally obtained resources.

Expectativas para operaciones financieras en los Sectores Vulnerables mediante Matrices de Transición