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There has been concern that variola virus might be held clandestinely elsewhere. Through constructing mathematical model based on the detailed epidemiologic data, we focused on simulating the various possible scenarios arising from a bioterrorist attack whereby smallpox virus was introduced into Japan, and sought to develop the most effective way of nationwide vaccination policy based on the theory of residual immunity.

Modeling for a Smallpox-vaccination Policy against Possible Bioterrorism in Japan: The Impact of Long-lasting Vaccinal Immunity