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To investigate the magnitude of the 'regression to the mean' effect for the changes in serum total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), and high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDLC) levels during one-year interval between annual health check-ups in occupational settings, the relationships between the baseline level and subsequent one-year change in TC, TG or HDLC were analyzed using paired health check-up data in 1998 and 1999 of 547 Japanese male clerical workers. After adjustment for age, body mass index (BMI), yearly change in BMI, drinking score and smoking score by the multivariate analyses, the yearly changes in each serum lipid (deltaTC, deltaLn(TG) or deltaHDLC) were clearly inversely associated with the lipid levels in 1998. For example, in the multiple linear regression analyses setting delta value in each serum lipid as a dependent variable, the partial regression coefficients for the baseline lipid levels (beta1) were - 0.21 (p&lt;0.001) for the TC, -0.39 (p&lt;0.001) for the Ln(TG) and -0.15 (p&lt;0.001) for the HDLC, respectively. These results suggest that the observed yearly change in each serum lipid level may largely reflect the 'regression to the mean' effect in addition to the real yearly biological change.

Magnitude of the Regression to the Mean within One-year Intra-individual Changes in Serum Lipid Levels among Japanese Male Workers.