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In April 2003, the EU Accession Agreement was officially signed for the Czech Republic, Estonia, Cyprus, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovenia and the Slovak Republic. These countries are destined to become EU members in May 2004. As part of the “acquis communautaire”, participation in the new version of the exchange rate mechanism (ERM II), and subsequently in the European Monetary Union (EMU) is obligatory for all new EU members (no opt-out clause is available). Therefore, the question today for the accession countries is no longer whether or not to enter the eurozone but rather the time horizon when the entry should happen. More specifically, as a condition for EMU membership, a country must be prepared to adopt the euro as the single currency and be able to meet the obligations arising from the Stability and Growth Pact. The formal condition for a country's preparedness to adopt the single currency is the fulfilment of a set of nominal convergence criteria, the so-called Maastricht criteria. Although the Central-Eastern European countries (CEECs) are following strikingly different patterns of economic policy (from currency board arrangements to managed floating coupled with inflation targeting monetary strategies) the endpoint is the same: by around 2010 all of them wish to join the monetary union, fully harvesting the possible gains of the single market. So far the most ambitious time-schedule was announced by the Hungarian government: in July 2003 it declared the intention to introduce the euro by 1 January 2008 (Government of the Republic of Hungary [2003] pp. 11-20). The paper is organized as follows. First, I will outline the legal regulations concerning the Economic and Monetary Union, and evaluate the preparedness of the whole region in general. Then in Section 3, a detailed picture about Hungarian macroeconomic tendencies will be offered, in light of the above mentioned criteria. Section 4 will discuss the feasibility of the 2008 target date, and set out the arguments regarding the optimal timing of eurozone entry. Section 5 will conclude.

Roadmap for the adoption of the euro in Hungary: dangers and opportunities