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According to future climate projections, many species will see their ranges reduced, mainly those that live in cold forests. The aim of the present study was to model the current distribution and climate change scenarios of the Pinus hartwegii Lindl subalpine forest for 2041-2060 in the Transverse Neovolcanic Belt. Pinus hartwegii Lindl records were obtained from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) and field. The 19 WorldClim bioclimatic variables for the present and future were downloaded from the CRNMCM5 and HADGEM2_ES Global Circulation Models with two radioactive forcings of 4.5 (CO 2 constant pathways) and 8.5 (CO 2 high pathways). The spatial autocorrelation of the variables was eliminated. The environmental variables and presence records were uploaded to the MaxEnt program, where 75% of the data was used to train the models and 25% to validate them. The parameters of the best model were transferred to generate future models. The models presented an excellent statistical fit (training and validation tests > 0.9) for both periods. The determining variables of both periods analyzed were mean annual temperature (BIO1) and altitude (DEM). Climate change scenarios predict an increase in average annual temperature between 0.7 °C and 2.1 °C and reductions between 11.7% and 26.9% in the subalpine niche of Pinus hartwegii Lindl. Nevado de Toluca and Pico de Orizaba are the most susceptible sites to climate change. On the other hand, Izta-Popo Park would present a 37.4% niche increase.

Distribución actual y futura del bosque subalpino de Pinus hartwegii Lindl en el Eje Neovolcánico Transversal