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Modern climate conditions and their possible future changes in the southern part of Valday Hills, Russia, were analyzed using 40-years of meteorological data observations and global model projections. It was shown that the annual, January and July temperatures in the area increased during the last 40 years by about 0.7°, 4.0°C and 0.3°C, respectively. Annual precipitation also increased by about 60 mm. Climate simulations for the period up to 2100 provided by a general circulation model ECHAM5 (MPI Hamburg, Germany) according to B1, A1B and A2 IPCC emission scenarios propose significant changes in meteorological conditions for the study area in the future. The mean annual temperature at the end of the century may rise by 2.2-3.9°C. Increase of January temperatures under different scenarios can range between 3.3 and 6.7°C. Projected increase of annual precipitation can reach 105 mm and it is mainly manifested in growth of winter values.

Climatic Conditions of the South Part of Valday Hills, Russia, and Their Projected Changes During the 21st Century