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The selection of scenarios representing plausible realizations of the future conditions-with associated probabilities of occurrence-that can affect the long-term performance of a high-level radioactive waste (HLW) repository is the commonly used method for treating the uncertainty in the prediction of the future states of the system. This method, conventionally referred to as the ``scenario approach,`` while common is not the only method to deal with this uncertainty; other method ``ch as the environmental simulation approach (ESA), have also been proposed. Two of the difficulties with the scenario approach are the lack of uniqueness in the definition of the term ``scenario`` and the lack of uniqueness in the approach to formulate scenarios, which relies considerably on subjective judgments. Consequently, it is difficult to assure that a complete and unique set of scenarios can be defined for use in a performance assessment. Because scenarios are key to the determination of the long-term performance of the repository system, this lack of uniqueness can present a considerable challenge when attempting to reconcile the set of scenarios, and their level of detail, obtained using different approaches, particularly among proponents and regulators of a HLW repository

Review of scenario selection approaches for performance assessment of high-level waste repositories and related issues.