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This project falls under the Technology Innovation and Diffusion topic of the Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Research Program. The objective was to better understand the critical variables that affect the rate of penetration of large-scale electricity technologies in order to improve their representation in integrated assessment models. We conducted this research in six integrated tasks. In our first two tasks, we identified potential factors that affect penetration rates through discussions with modeling groups and through case studies of historical precedent. In the next three tasks, we investigated in detail three potential sets of critical factors: industrial conditions, resource conditions, and regulatory/environmental considerations. Research to assess the significance and relative importance of these factors involved the development of a microeconomic, system dynamics model of the US electric power sector. Finally, we implemented the penetration rate models in an integrated assessment model. While the focus of this effort is on carbon capture and sequestration technologies, much of the work will be applicable to other large-scale energy conversion technologies

Factors Affecting the Rate of Penetration of Large-Scale Electricity Technologies: The Case of Carbon Sequestration