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The ORNL Heat Pump Model and an optimizing program were used to explore the limits of steady-state heating efficiency for conventional air-source heat pumps. The method used allows for the simultaneous optimization of ten selected design variables, taking proper account of their interactions, while constraining other parameters to chosen limits or fixed values. Designs were optimized for a fixed heating capacity, but the results may be scaled to other capacities. Substantial performance improvement is predicted compared to today's state of the art heat pump. With increased component efficiencies that are expected in the near future and with modest increases in heat exchanger area, a 28% increase in heating efficiency is predicted; for long-term improvements with considerably larger heat exchangers, a 56% increase is possible. The improved efficiencies are accompanied by substantial reductions in the requirements for compressor and motor size. The predicted performance improvements are attributed not only to improved components and larger heat exchangers but also to the use of an optimizing design procedure. Deviations from the optimized design may be necessary to make use of available component sizes and to maintain good cooling-mode performance while improving the heating efficiency. Sensitivity plots (i.e., COP as a function of one or more design parameters) were developed to explore design flexibilities and to evaluate their consequences. The performance of the optimized designs was compared to that of modified ideal cycles to assess the factors that limit further improvement. It is hoped that the design methods developed will be useful to designers in the heat pump industry

Design Optimization and the Limits of Steady-State Heating Efficiency for Conventional Single-Speed Air-Source Heat Pumps