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The authors present a decision analytical framework for studying the decision to purchase new energy-efficient magnetic ballasts for commercial buildings as a special case study for understanding the decision environment that could either encourage or retard the penetration of new carbon-saving technologies. The framework is particularly germane to situations where uncertainty in the investment outcome prevails as a dominant dimension of the problem. It allows the policy analyst to consider policies that operate through other considerations than through the price alone. A key effect is how a policy will either truncate a probability distribution to remove the worst outcomes or cause the probability distribution to narrow. Such considerations appear important when studying information programs, vendor warranty, and other factors that condition the investment decision

A decision analytical framework for evaluating technical innovation and diffusion: The case of electronic ballasts for commercial buildings